A fresh call to tap Venezuela’s oil is setting off a debate about energy security, sanctions, and prices at the pump. Former President Donald Trump signaled interest in turning to the South American producer as the United States weighs options to steady supply and costs.
Trump says the US will look to tap Venezuela’s oil.
At issue is a simple fact with complex roots. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven crude reserves, yet it supplies only a sliver of global output.
Venezuela has the most oil reserves, but only accounts for 1% of global production.
Why Venezuela’s oil matters now
Venezuela’s heavy crude suits many U.S. Gulf Coast refineries that were built to process dense barrels from Latin America. After sanctions and a collapse in output, many plants turned to other sources or ran below capacity.
Global oil demand is hovering near record highs, while supply risks persist from wars, OPEC+ decisions, and shipping constraints. Any move that increases flows to U.S. refiners could help ease price spikes, especially ahead of peak driving seasons.
Years of sanctions, decay, and a partial rebound
Production in Venezuela fell sharply after years of underinvestment, operational breakdowns, and U.S. sanctions that tightened in 2019. Output dropped from several million barrels per day in earlier decades to well under one million barrels in recent years.
Washington temporarily eased some restrictions in late 2023, allowing limited deals under strict licenses. Those measures were later scaled back amid concerns over the country’s political process. Chevron has maintained a narrow channel to lift Venezuelan oil under a separate authorization.
Even with modest gains in 2023 and 2024, Venezuela still hovers near roughly 1% of global supply. Raising that share would require steady investment, reliable power, access to diluents, and stable contracts that outlast political swings.
What tapping Venezuelan barrels could change
Energy analysts say more Venezuelan oil to the U.S. would have three near-term effects:
- Improve supply of heavy crude for Gulf Coast refineries.
- Potentially reduce import costs and help moderate gasoline prices.
- Shift some trade flows now routed through Asia.
But there are limits. Large increases would take time because fields, upgraders, and pipelines need repairs and capital. Shipping and insurance depend on clear sanctions guidance. Without durable policy, companies may hold back.
Competing views on policy and risk
Supporters of a new opening argue that bringing more barrels to market could help U.S. consumers and reduce reliance on unstable routes. They also say that engagement gives leverage to press for political reforms and better oversight.
Critics counter that easing restrictions without firm guarantees risks entrenching officials accused of abuses. Environmental groups warn that ramping up heavy oil use conflicts with climate targets and could lock in higher emissions if not paired with cuts elsewhere.
Refining executives note that heavy crude helps optimize yields. Yet they acknowledge constraints. If shipments stop suddenly, plants face costly adjustments. That makes predictable rules as important as headline deals.
Numbers behind the claim
Venezuela’s proven reserves are often cited at over 300 billion barrels, the largest tally globally. Still, output sits under one million barrels per day, out of a world production level near 100 million barrels per day.
The gap between reserves and actual supply reflects more than geology. It shows the weight of policy, maintenance, and market access.
What it means for consumers
Any additional supply that reaches U.S. refiners could shave costs at the margin, especially for diesel. The impact on gasoline will depend on timing, volumes, and whether OPEC+ adjusts to offset new flows.
For drivers, the clearest effects would show up if consistent cargoes arrive over months, not weeks. Short-term moves or one-off shipments are less likely to change prices in a lasting way.
Trump’s signal puts fresh attention on an old question: can the U.S. secure more heavy crude from a nearby source without losing traction on sanctions and climate goals? The answer will hinge on transparent licenses, stable contracts, and visible steps on governance in Caracas. Watch for Treasury guidance on authorizations, any OPEC+ response, and refinery import data along the Gulf Coast. If policy stays steady and investments materialize, Venezuela’s share of supply could rise modestly—enough to matter to refiners and, over time, to consumers.
