Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office have been marked by the worst stock market performance since Richard Nixon’s presidency in the 1970s. According to data from CFRA Research, the S&P 500 has dropped by 7.9% from January 20, when Trump was sworn in, through April 25. This decline is the second worst first 100-day performance, with Nixon witnessing a 9.9% drop in 1973 amid economic measures that led to the 1973-1975 recession.
On average, the S&P 500 rises 2.1% during a president’s first 100 days in office, based on data from 1944 through 2020. The market’s reaction to Trump’s second term contrasts with the optimism seen after his election win in November, when the S&P 500 surged to all-time highs. CFRA Research noted that the index climbed 3.7% from Election Day to Inauguration Day.
However, the rally lost momentum as Trump pursued his campaign promises, particularly his aggressive trade policies. Many fear these policies could raise inflation and push the economy into a recession. Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, said, “The market is still searching for a bottom.
I believe it’s still a bear market rally, a near-term bounce.
Market slump shadows first 100 days
We are not out of the woods yet given the ongoing uncertainty in Washington.”
The S&P 500, which reached a closing high of 6,144.15 on February 19, ended trading on Friday at 5,525.21, erasing all post-election gains.
With two trading days left in Trump’s first 100 days, a potential rally could bring the market performance close to the 6.9% decline seen during George W. Bush’s start in 2001. Trump and his team have offered various explanations for the market’s rocky ride.
They often suggest that these losses are part of their plan or a short “transition period” that will soon be reversed. At times, Trump has implied that market downturns could be a negotiating tool, suggesting that short-term market pain could lead to long-term gain through successful trade negotiations. The White House has also pointed to non-Trump and non-tariff factors that could be driving down prices.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that market volatility might be due to an idiosyncratic tech sell-off rather than systematic economic issues. Trump has blamed his predecessor, Joe Biden, saying that market weakness is essentially the result of the previous administration’s policies. Another common refrain from Trump’s aides is to downplay the importance of stock market performance, emphasizing that tariffs are about helping “Main Street” over “Wall Street.” However, Trump rarely maintains this line for long, often touting market gains whenever they occur as evidence of success.
