A single line has been echoing through foreign ministries: the United States may no longer be the anchor partners expected. Allies in Europe and Asia are re-checking defense plans, trade links, and supply chains as Washington’s policies swing sharply with domestic politics. The reassessment spans budgets, treaties, and emergency stockpiles, and it is underway now.
“Especially now that America is becoming a less reliable partner.”
For decades, Washington offered steady commitments backed by unmatched power. Recent years have been less stable. The 2021 exit from Afghanistan jarred partners. Disputes over tariffs hit close allies. Delays in Ukraine aid in late 2023 and early 2024 fed doubts about long-term support. The push and pull between administrations has raised the cost of betting everything on one guarantor.
Allies hedge as security guarantees look less certain
European leaders have been blunt about risk. NATO’s secretary general says a record group of allies will spend at least 2% of GDP on defense in 2024. That shift is not only about Russia. It is also a response to policy swings in Washington that could return with the next election.
In conversations across capitals, a common view is taking hold: plan for help from the United States, but be ready to act without it. Governments are buying air defenses, long-range missiles, and munitions lines that can run at wartime tempo. Joint procurement is gaining ground after years of delay.
Industry is adjusting too. Defense firms in Europe are reopening production lines for artillery and air defense interceptors. Leaders want contracts that last longer than a single budget fight in Washington. A senior official summed up the mood with the line heard in many meetings: “Especially now that America is becoming a less reliable partner.”
Asia recalibrates as tensions rise
In the Indo-Pacific, Japan plans to lift defense spending to about 2% of GDP by the late 2020s. Tokyo is adding counter-strike options and hardening bases. Australia is deepening ties through AUKUS while also expanding missile and submarine plans at home. South Korea is building out munitions capacity and layered air defenses.
Partners still value U.S. power and intelligence. But they are filing backup plans. More bilateral deals among neighbors are appearing. Exercises now practice rapid resupply even if a major partner is late to the fight.
Trade policy whiplash and supply chain moves
Shifting U.S. trade and industrial policy is also forcing changes. Subsidies under the CHIPS and IRA laws attract investment, yet content rules have caused friction with close allies. Export controls on advanced tech aim at security goals, but partners have to realign their own rules, often at short notice.
Europe is trying to shield clean-tech supply chains from sudden policy turns. Some firms now split product lines for U.S. and non-U.S. markets to manage risk. Others keep larger inventories to ride out regulatory shocks.
Costs, choices, and what comes next
The move to hedge is costly. Stockpiles tie up cash. Parallel supply chains are inefficient. But leaders argue the price of surprise is higher. They point to lessons from Ukraine, where months of debate in Washington stalled deliveries as front lines shifted.
- Expect higher defense budgets in Europe and Asia through the decade.
- Watch for more regional pacts and long-term arms contracts.
- Plan on stricter rules for tech exports and data flows.
There are still strong ties. U.S. forces continue to train with allies. Intelligence sharing remains deep. Recent aid packages to Ukraine and commitments in the Indo-Pacific show that support can pass even after hard fights in Congress. But partners are no longer assuming continuity from one election to the next.
The next markers are clear. NATO allies will test whether 2% is a floor, not a ceiling. Japan and Australia must deliver on procurement schedules. The European Union will try to scale ammunition output. In Washington, the outcome of budget talks and the election will set the tone for years.
For policymakers abroad, the takeaway is simple. Build capacity at home, diversify critical supplies, and sign long-term deals that survive political swings. The United States may still be the first call in a crisis. It should not be the only plan.
