The S&P 500 is likely to climb after Thursday’s jobs report, JPMorgan analysts say. They predict a 5% chance of a 1% to 1.5% gain if job additions reach 145,000 or more. For 125,000 to 145,000 new jobs, there’s a 25% probability of up to a 1.25% rise.
Positive market movement is expected as long as job growth exceeds 105,000. Below that level, slight declines are anticipated. Investors are watching various data releases this week to assess the employment situation.
The market still expects about 50 basis points of rate cuts by year-end. However, the Fed’s approach may shift based on upcoming economic data and job reports. Fed Chair J.
Powell emphasized that the Fed is considering not just employment data but also broader economic impacts and legislative developments like the tax bill in Congress. Thursday’s jobs report will provide a clearer picture of potential market moves and the Fed’s next steps. U.S. stock futures rose ahead of Wednesday’s session as investors weighed mixed signals from Washington and awaited key jobs data.
Futures on the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 were up 0.35%, 0.22%, and 0.27%, respectively, at 1:00 a.m. EST. President Trump’s tax-and-spending bill passed the Senate but still faces House resistance.
S&P 500 climb likely after jobs data
HSBC’s Jose Rasco expects short-term market volatility, especially in bonds, but believes stocks will rebound once things stabilize and the Fed acts. The Nasdaq lost 0.84%, the Dow climbed nearly 400 points, and the S&P 500 dipped 0.03% in Tuesday’s trading. Today’s ADP jobs report is expected to show 120,000 new jobs in June, up from 37,000 in May.
June’s main jobs report is due Thursday morning. The economy slowed more than expected in Q1, with real GDP falling 0.5%, worse than the previous estimate of a 0.2% decline. Despite weak data, markets have rallied to new highs.
Analysts attribute the weak GDP partly to a surge in imports ahead of tariff deadlines. Real personal spending grew at just a 0.5% annual rate, the slowest since the 2020 and 2008 recessions. May’s economic data were the weakest for 2025 so far.
Yet the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs last week, as investors anticipate AI boosting profit margins. U.S. small-caps continue to struggle with higher capital costs but cleared a hurdle by moving above the 200-day average. International stocks have outperformed U.S. equities significantly in 2025.
Earnings grew 13.7% in Q1 despite the slowdown. Expected earnings growth is set to decelerate but remains solid. With a forward P/E of 23 and an equity risk premium of 0%, much good news is priced in, yet momentum remains bullish.
